Consumer tech observation
In this past Sunday's Simpsons episode, we see Homer walking through a garbage dump. The writers for the eps enjoy writing in little visual quips in the background, and so in this garbage dump we see piles of things that were supposed to hit it big in the consumer tech market. There are piles of 8-tracks, beta videotapes, and laserdiscs. Then there's an empty spot with a big sign saying "Reserved for DVDs."
This got me thinking - what aspects of technology, marketing strategy, and luck combine to form a lasting consumer institution like the CD? Why did laserdiscs die out, and minidiscs never catch on? Why do DVDs appear to be the successor to CDs as the lasting media of choice (despite what the Simpsons writers think)?
I think that the major consumer media of the past 30 years - cassettes, CDs, and DVDs - have all stuck because they happened to come along at a fortuitous enough time that they were useful, cheap, and not about to be trumped by something better.
I don't think I ever had an 8-track, but my co-worker said that you couldn't rewind them - if you wanted to return to a certain spot, you had to fast forward to the end, flip sides, fast forward to the end of that side, flip back to the original, and go to your spot. So, obviously cassettes were superior in function.
CDs were and are superior to cassettes, and have been the most widespread media for data storage for a long, long time, without any really serious competitors.
Laserdiscs died out because while they were cool, they were too big (vinyl-sized) for easy storage/transportation and were almost immediately trumped by the introduction of CD-sized DVDs. Plus, their size precluded them from being used in personal PCs in the same way that rewritable CDs and DVDs are.
Minidiscs never caught on because while they were essentially smaller, more portable DVDs, they were trumped by the current digital revolution, such as MP3s and MP3 players.
So what's next? My best guess is the introduction of USB-capable memory keys and hard drives. Small memory keys the size of a car key can now be used to store lots of data, and can be plugged into any computer's USB port to essentially act as an external hard drive. Extremely portable and useful across many operating systems. Also, MP3 players these days are basically just hard drives with a USB jack that allows a user to copy mp3 and other data files from a PC to the portable player/hard drive. Whereas in the past you were limited by the storage space on a floppy, or by the use-once flaw of burning CDs, now you can carry your songs/data with you. I think we'll see consumer tech going in this direction. One day we'll probably have either a watch or a cell phone that also acts as a PDA and MP3 player at the same time.
In this past Sunday's Simpsons episode, we see Homer walking through a garbage dump. The writers for the eps enjoy writing in little visual quips in the background, and so in this garbage dump we see piles of things that were supposed to hit it big in the consumer tech market. There are piles of 8-tracks, beta videotapes, and laserdiscs. Then there's an empty spot with a big sign saying "Reserved for DVDs."
This got me thinking - what aspects of technology, marketing strategy, and luck combine to form a lasting consumer institution like the CD? Why did laserdiscs die out, and minidiscs never catch on? Why do DVDs appear to be the successor to CDs as the lasting media of choice (despite what the Simpsons writers think)?
I think that the major consumer media of the past 30 years - cassettes, CDs, and DVDs - have all stuck because they happened to come along at a fortuitous enough time that they were useful, cheap, and not about to be trumped by something better.
I don't think I ever had an 8-track, but my co-worker said that you couldn't rewind them - if you wanted to return to a certain spot, you had to fast forward to the end, flip sides, fast forward to the end of that side, flip back to the original, and go to your spot. So, obviously cassettes were superior in function.
CDs were and are superior to cassettes, and have been the most widespread media for data storage for a long, long time, without any really serious competitors.
Laserdiscs died out because while they were cool, they were too big (vinyl-sized) for easy storage/transportation and were almost immediately trumped by the introduction of CD-sized DVDs. Plus, their size precluded them from being used in personal PCs in the same way that rewritable CDs and DVDs are.
Minidiscs never caught on because while they were essentially smaller, more portable DVDs, they were trumped by the current digital revolution, such as MP3s and MP3 players.
So what's next? My best guess is the introduction of USB-capable memory keys and hard drives. Small memory keys the size of a car key can now be used to store lots of data, and can be plugged into any computer's USB port to essentially act as an external hard drive. Extremely portable and useful across many operating systems. Also, MP3 players these days are basically just hard drives with a USB jack that allows a user to copy mp3 and other data files from a PC to the portable player/hard drive. Whereas in the past you were limited by the storage space on a floppy, or by the use-once flaw of burning CDs, now you can carry your songs/data with you. I think we'll see consumer tech going in this direction. One day we'll probably have either a watch or a cell phone that also acts as a PDA and MP3 player at the same time.
posted by Bob at
4:36 PM
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